How to Tell a Real Holiday Deal From a Fake Discount

Big sale events are designed to make you feel like you’re about to miss out. Prime Day, Black Friday, Cyber Monday, and the stretch of “early deals” leading up to each of them are full of red badges, crossed-out prices, and timers counting down to zero.

Some of those deals are good. Plenty aren’t. The difference usually comes down to a few quick checks, and once you get used to doing them, they take less time than reading the product description.

The “was” price is often the weak point

A discount is only as real as the price it’s measured against. That crossed-out number next to the sale price is meant to show what the item normally costs, but it isn’t always the price people actually paid.

Retailers use a few kinds of reference prices. Some show the item’s recent selling price. Others use a “list price” or “compare at” price, which might be the manufacturer’s suggested price, a price the item rarely sold at, or one from a while ago. The Federal Trade Commission has long-standing guidance warning against advertising discounts from inflated former prices that weren’t genuinely offered for a reasonable stretch of time. That doesn’t stop every questionable comparison from showing up online.

So treat the percentage off as a claim, not a fact. A product that’s “40% off” might be at its normal price if the reference price was never real.

Check the price history

The best way to judge a deal is to see what the item has sold for over the past several months. Price tracking tools and browser extensions can show the price history for many products on large retail sites, and many of them let you set an alert for when the price drops below a number you choose.

When you look at a price history chart, you’re looking for a few things. Is the current price the lowest it’s been, or close to it? Has the item sold at this price regularly outside of big sale events? Did the price jump up shortly before the sale started? That last pattern is a classic sign of a manufactured discount.

If you start tracking items you’re interested in a few weeks before a sale event, you’ll have a clear sense of what a good price looks like by the time the event arrives.

Compare across stores

During major sales, retailers watch each other closely, and many of the same deals show up in several places. Before buying, check a couple of other major retailers for the same model. You’ll sometimes find the same price elsewhere with a better return policy, faster shipping, or a gift receipt option.

Watch out for slightly different model numbers. Some products, especially TVs and appliances, come in variants sold through specific retailers or specifically for sale events. These can look identical at a glance but differ in features or components. Compare the exact model numbers and the specs that matter to you rather than assuming two similar names mean the same product.

Timers and limited stock

Countdown clocks and “only 3 left” messages are there to rush you. Some limited-time deals really are limited. Lightning-style deals with a set quantity do sell out. But a rushed decision is how people end up buying things they didn’t need, at prices that weren’t special.

A good habit is to make your list before the sale starts. Write down what you actually need or planned to buy, and what you’d consider a good price for each. When the sale arrives, you’re checking items against your list instead of browsing for whatever looks exciting. Anything that isn’t on the list gets a cooling-off period before you buy.

Read reviews with a skeptical eye

A strong rating and thousands of reviews can make a product feel like a safe bet, but review counts can be misleading.

Look at the distribution, not just the average. A product with lots of five-star and one-star reviews and few in the middle can signal an inconsistent product, or reviews that aren’t all genuine. Read the three-star reviews. They’re often the most balanced and the most specific.

Look for detail. Real reviews tend to mention specific use, how long the person has owned it, and particular pros and cons. Fake or incentivized reviews often sound generic, repeat the product name, or focus on the delivery rather than the item.

Check whether the reviews are about the right product. On some sites, sellers can group variations of a product together, and occasionally reviews for one version appear under another, or a listing changes over time. If reviews mention features or colors that don’t match what you’re looking at, take note.

Pay attention to dates. A sudden burst of glowing reviews over a short period, especially on a newer listing, is worth being wary of.

In 2024 the FTC finalized a rule banning fake reviews and testimonials, including buying positive reviews and reviews written by people who never used the product, and it allows the agency to seek civil penalties against violators. That’s a meaningful step, but enforcement takes time and fake reviews haven’t disappeared. Your own judgment is still your best filter.

Know who you’re buying from

On large marketplaces, the product page may be the same while the seller is not. Check who is actually selling and shipping the item. A well-established seller with a long track record and clear return policies is a safer bet than a new seller offering a price that seems far below everyone else’s. Prices that are dramatically lower than the competition can be a sign of counterfeit goods or a scam listing.

Be careful with deal links that arrive by text or email, too. Phishing scams spike around big shopping events, often in the form of fake delivery problems or “exclusive” deals. Go to the retailer’s site or app directly instead of clicking the link.

Read the return policy before you need it

Many retailers extend their return windows for holiday purchases, which is helpful if you’re buying gifts early. But policies differ, and some items, like opened electronics or clearance products, may have shorter windows or restocking fees. Check the return terms before you buy, not after.

It’s also worth knowing whether the retailer offers price adjustments. Some will refund the difference if the price drops within a short period after you buy, though many exclude sale events. A quick look at the policy can save you money if a better deal shows up a week later.

A good deal is one you’d have bought anyway

The best protection against sale-season regret is simple. Buy things you already wanted, at a price you’ve checked, from a seller you trust. A discount on something you didn’t need isn’t savings. It’s just spending with a nicer label.